OSCARS 2016: Winners Predictions

Well, here we are again. Let's break it down:

Best Picture

Will win: The Revenant

Could win: Spotlight

Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Nominee prediction results: 7/8

I rarely agree with the Academy and this year is no exception. It is clear that The Revenant is the current favorite, with former frontrunner Spotlight very close behind. There could be a surprise but I doubt it. The sad thing is that the real masterpiece of the year has very little chance of winning.

Best Director

Will win: Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)

Could win / Should win: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Iñárritu did a fine job but not better than last year's Birdman. I'm not a fan of that movie but he did a great work there and awarding him twice would be just too much. Besides, Miller is the one to reward for the best action movie in a very long time.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Will win / Should win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)

Could win: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

It's time. That simple. He's performance is very good and he just deserves it after so long. Yet, many people still thing he shouldn't win. We will see if they have strong voices.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Will win / Should win: Brie Larson (Room)

Could win: No one else really...

Nominee prediction results: 5/5

I was surprised to be right about Lawrence being nominated again. But whatever, no one has any chance of winning except Larson. Ronan was a frontrunner early on but the awards started flying towards Larson. She certainly deserves it.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Could win: Tom Hardy (The Revenant)

Should win: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Now this is hard to predict. This category is frequently predictable but not this year. I'm predicting Stallone winning because he's very well liked and the performance is really touching, he gives the movie a father figure that just works. Rylance performance though is very subtle but just right, not flashy, very paced. And Tom Hardy could win if The Revenant just sweeps.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win / Should win:: Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Could win: Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Vikander is the heart of the movie and we all know she should be on the leading category and not in this one. However, category fraud will give her her first Academy Awards. Only Winslet could spoil but she has only won awards when Vikander wasn't there. Besides, Vikander has Ex Machina and Testament of Youth in her favor.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win / Should win: The Big Short

Could win: Room

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

The movie is just too good to leave empty handed. However, there are many fans of Room that may want to give another accolade to the movie.

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Spotlight

Could win: Straight Outta Compton

Should win: Ex Machina or Inside Out

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Sorry, I just couldn't decide for only one option as I loved Ex Machina and Inside Out. They were true beautiful stories, very well told and with fantastic scenes, all thanks to the screenplays. However this prize is probably Spotlight's. If it loses the top prize, this is the consolation prize. Yet, Straight Outta Compton could spoil in a year of controversy in the industry.

Best Animated Feature Film

Will win / Should win: Inside Out

Could win: ø

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Inside Out is this year animation masterpiece although the list of nominees was just perfect this year.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: Son of Saul (Hungary)

Could win: Mustang (France)

Should win: You know...

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

I was happy to see my country nominated for the first time. That's always great. However, the Hungarian entry has won almost every prize this season (they do love WWII) and if someone spoils their party it will be the Turkish movie that represents France.

Best Documentary Feature Film

Will win / Should win: Amy

Could win: The Look of Silence

Nominee prediction results: 2/5

I loved Amy. So contemporary and, sadly, timeless. Yet, the choices are so varied a surprise could happen.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Will win: Body Team 12

Could win: Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah

Should win: A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Random guess. Didn't watch any of these. Sorry.

Best Live Action Short Film

Will win: Shok

Could win: Stutterer

Should win: No idea...

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Didn't see them...

Best Animated Short Film

Will win: Prologue

Could win: Sanjay's Super Team

Should win: Bear Story

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Another random guess based on images from all the short films.

Best Original Score

Will win / Should win: The Hateful Eight

Could win: Carol

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Ennio Morricone is a legend and he deserves a prize for his work, even if he already has an honorary one.

Best Original Song

Will win: "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

Could win: "Earned it" from Fifty Shades of Grey

Should win: "Manta Ray" from Racing Extinction

Nominee prediction results: 2/5

This is the crazy category, when anything can happen and it did. Three music stars nominated. I think it's Warren's time to finally win and Gaga fans can go insane.

Best Sound Editing

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

That damn race! Just perfect.

Best Sound Mixing

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Revenant

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

So much action cannot go unnoticed.

Best Production Design

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Danish Girl

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

Those cars are insane. So much work and it was all worth it.

Best Cinematography

Will win / Should win: The Revenant

Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

Lubezki has won twice so maybe one would think it is too much. But it isn't. The guy is just brilliant. Although I wouldn't mind Seale or that poor Deakins winning.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Revenant

Nominee prediction results: 2/3

Every character is an example of why Mad Max deserves this award.

Best Costume Design

Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: The Revenant

Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road or The Danish Girl

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

My runner up is The Revenant because many would vote for them for any category. Not me. I like all nominees but that dystopian future is just too good, on men and women.

Best Film Editing

Will win / Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Could win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Nominee prediction results: 3/5

The fact that Spolight is here is he only reason why the movie could still win Best Picture. Yet, it's a year of action movies so it would be shameful not to award this prize to any of the two action packed picture in the roster.

Best Visual Effects

Will win: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Should win: Ex Machina

Nominee prediction results: 4/5

The Revenant here means the Academy REALLY loved that movie because I have seen better FX in films not nominated. It's just nonsense. I take a leap of fate here, even if it may not be a very likely choice.

TOTALS

Mad Max: Fury Road > 6

The Revenant > 4

Amy, Body Team 12, Creed, The Big Short, The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight, The Hunting Ground, Inside Out, Prologue, Room, Son of Saul, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 1 each

This is it people. Let's hear it tomorrow night!

PREDICTIONS: Academy Awards

Here are my predictions. I have seen many of these movies. The only real shots in the dark are in the short subject categories, which I haven't seen at all. I'll try to see the ones that get nominated.

After my predicted five, I've decided to put an alternative nominee, just for fun.

Please feel free to comment and share your thoughts!

Best Picture

* The Big Short

* Bridge of Spies

* Carol

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* The Revenant

* Room

* Spotlight

If 9 or 10 I'd add the following two movies:

* Inside Out

* Straight Outta Compton

Best Director

* The Big Short -- Adam McKay

* Mad Max: Fury Road -- George Miller

* The Martian -- Ridley Scott

* The Revenant -- Alejandro G. Iñárritu

* Spotlight -- Tom McCarthy

Alt: Carol -- Todd Haynes

Best Actor in a Leading Role

* Steve Carrell -- The Big Short

* Matt Damon -- The Martian

* Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Revenant

* Michael Fassbender -- Steve Jobs

* Eddie Redmayne -- The Danish Girl

Alt: Bryan Cranston -- Trumbo

Best Actress in a Leading Role

* Cate Blanchett -- Carol

* Brie Larson -- Room

* Jennifer Lawrence -- Joy

* Charlotte Rampling -- 45 Years

* Saiorse Ronan -- Brooklyn

Alt: Alicia Vikander -- The Danish Girl

Best Actor in a Supporting role

* Christian Bale -- The Big Short

* Idris Elba -- Beasts of No Nation

* Mark Ruffalo -- Spotlight

* Mark Rylance -- Bridge of Spies

* Jacob Tremblay -- Room

Alt: Sylvester Stallone -- Creed

Best Actress in a Supporting role

* Jane Fonda -- Youth

* Jennifer Jason Leigh -- The Hateful Eight

* Rooney Mara -- Carol

* Alicia Vikander -- The Danish Girl

* Kate Winslet -- Steve Jobs

Alt: Kristen Stewart -- Clouds of Sils Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

* The Big Short -- Adam McKay and Charles Randolph

* Brooklyn -- Nick Hornby

* Carol -- Phyllis Nagy

* Room -- Emma Donoghue

* Steve Jobs -- Aaron Sorkin

Alt: The Martian

Best Original Screenplay

* Bridge of Spies -- Matt Charman, Ethan Coel and Joel Cohen

* The Hateful Eight -- Quentin Tarantino

* Inside Out -- Josh Cooley, Pete Docter and Meg LeFauve

* Spotlight -- Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer

* Straight Outta Compton -- Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S.Leigh Savidge and Alan Wenkus

Alt: Ex Machina

Best Foreign Language Film

* Embrace of the Serpent -- Colombia

* Labyrinth of Lies -- Germany

* Mustang -- France

* Son of Saul -- Hungary

* Theeb -- Jordan

Alt: The Brand New Testament -- Belgium

Best Animated Feature Film

* Anomalisa

* The Good Dinosaur

* Inside Out

* The Peanuts Movie

* Shaun the Sheep 

Alt: Minions

Best Cinematography

* Carol

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* The Revenant

* Sicario

Alt: The Hateful Eight

Best Costume Design

* Brooklyn

* Carol

* Cinderella

* The Danish Girl

* Mad Max: Fury Road

Alt: The Revenant

Best Film Editing

* The Big Short

* Bridge of Spies

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* The Revenant

Alt: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* Mr. Holmes

* The Revenant

Alt: Black Mass

Best Production Design

* Bridge of Spies

* Carol

* Crimson Peak

* The Danish Girl

* The Martian

Alt: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Score

* Bridge of Spies

* Carol

* The Danish Girl

* The Hateful Eight

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: Sicario

Best Original Song

* "Feels Like Summer" from Shaun the Sheep
* "I'll See You In My Dreams" from I'll See You In My Dreams

* "See You Again" from Furious 7
* "Simple Song #3" from Youth

* "Til' It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground

Alt: "Love Me Like You Do" from Fifty Shades of Grey

Best Sound Editing

* Jurassic World

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* Sicario

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: The Revenant

Best Sound Mixing

* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Revenant

* Sicario

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

* Straight Outta Compton

Alt: Bridge of Spies

Best Visual Effects

* Ex Machina

* Jurassic World

* Mad Max: Fury Road

* The Martian

* Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Alt: The Revenant

Best Documentary Feature

* Amy
* He Names Me Malala
*The Hunting Ground
* Listen To Me Marlon
*The Look of Silence

Alt: Where to Invade Next

Best Documentary Short

* Body Team 12
* Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
* Last Day of Freedom
* Minerita
* My Enemy, my Brother

Alt: Starting Point

Best Animated Short Film

* Bear Story (Historia de un oso)

* If I was God

* An Object at Rest

* Sanjay's Super Team

* We Can't Live Without Cosmos

Alt: My Home (Chez moi)

Best Live Action Short Film

* Ave Maria
* Bad Hunter
* Day One
* Shok
* Stutterer

Alt: Bis Gleich (Till Then)

TOTAL COUNT

Mad Max: Fury Road > 9
Carol & The Martian > 8
The Revenant > 7
The Big Short, Bridge of Spies & The Danish Girl > 6

Room, Spotlight & Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 4

Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Sicario, Steve Jobs & Straight Outta Compton > 3

The Hunting Ground, Jurassic World & Shaun the Sheep > 2

All other movies would get one nomination each.

Compensation

  I woke up suddenly, as if an electric charge had traveled through my body. But there was nothing electric there with me. Only he was there, breathing softly, very close to me. It was still very late at night as it was pitch black outside and the only object producing light was my cellphone, on the nightstand just behind me. I sat down on the bed, trying not to move too much. I went through my cellphone and erase every notification, in order to make the light go away. I saw some pictures of us together and then decided it was better to go back to the world of dreams. I left the cellphone facing down and just slid down the covers and hugged him softly. His body moved a bit but he didn’t do more. I fell asleep some minutes later, hugging him a little tighter.

In the morning, I realized I had maybe slept too much as the sun was rather intense on the outside. He had been kind enough not to pull up the blinds in the room. He was not there with me and I couldn’t hear him in the bathroom. A bit reluctantly, I went to the living room and the kitchen, and he wasn’t there. Apparently, he had taken everything and just left. I felt abandoned, even if we weren’t really a couple and he wasn’t living with me. We had been going out so often, I just assumed he would say something before leaving like a whirlwind. As I was already in the kitchen, I decided to make some breakfast. As I cooked, I couldn’t get him off my head. That was probably the reason why the eggs almost burned and I poured orange juice on the floor.

 Trying to leave last night in the past, I decided to work. Normally, that would make my mind so busy, I wouldn’t have time to think of anything else. It did work, as I had to grade several papers on Stanley Kubrick’s films. Some students had obviously not seen the movie they had chosen, as they repeated words and sentences often and used words, you know the kind, that make anyone sound smart but do no really mean anything. Some other works were better or at least not as offensive. I surprisingly took an hour and a half doing that and when I was done, he was there again, on my brain. Why couldn’t I just let him go?

 The rest of the day was about me trying not to think too much about it all and succeeding for a small amount of time, then my head would go back to the same thoughts all over again. I decided to watch a movie and order pizza and beer. I would not let him run my Sunday. But when they rang from downstairs some time later, it wasn’t the delivery guy nor the one that had left me alone on the bed, it was someone I hadn’t seen in a while. And I say “someone” because right then I didn’t know him very well and just recalled him from high school. I had no idea how he had gotten my address, as I didn’t speak to anyone from high school. But there he was, knocking on my door some minutes later.

 I remembered him as one of the few people that didn’t make me want to kill myself in high school. The rest were snobbish little rats, but he was all right, not a great person but not a bad one either. His cousin, a guy who had gone to the same high school with us, was a successful artist although I didn’t remember what it was he did exactly. Singing or something like that. I told him to sit down on my sofa and offered him some orange juice, as I had nothing else to drink. However, he said he wasn’t thirsty and that he had come only to deliver a message. “How mysterious!”, I thought. I mean, I didn’t really knew him but he had never struck me as the kind of guy that had any mystery in him but here he was.

 He had a backpack from where he took a envelope from. He gave it to me and I took it, as it was a bomb. The situation was not normal, at all, and I didn’t want to further spoil the only day I was really free from any commitments. He just told me to open it and read it, talking in a very hush voice, as if someone was hearing or as if he was afraid of talking too much or too loud. I opened the envelope and took out the letter inside. It was from his cousin, who apologized for stealing one of my ideas. I had no idea what it was all about and the letter didn’t really explain. He said he was sorry, very sorry, and that he just wanted to make things right for everyone involved. So he had included something else, for me to be compensated for what he had done.

 Inside the envelope, there was another paper. I had not seen in before. It was a check for several thousands of dollars and it had the signature of the deliveryman’s cousin. Then my patient just disappeared. I asked him what kind of joke this was and why they had to do it on Sunday, when I just wanted to be left alone. The poor guy, who had turned some shade of green, tried to speak and to explain himself but he couldn’t. That made me so angry, so I told him to please stand up and leave my apartment at once. I pressed the envelope, all papers inside, to his chest and told him to take all of that and go away. The doorman downstairs rang: it was my pizza, finally.

 I told him, again, to leave. He tried to speak but he just couldn’t and gave up. He left almost running and I saw him all the way to the elevator. When the door opened, he crossed paths with the man delivering my pizza, to whom I smiled and thanked deeply. I gave him a small tip and close the door, in order to enjoy my afternoon. But as I saw the movie and ate my pizza, I had that check and the letter on my brain. What the hell was that about? What did that man’s cousin wanted to give me money? Was it to bribe me? No, I didn’t even remembered his name… Maybe it was just a stupid joke, some kind of prank based on a dare they had done to one of the other idiots they knew well.

 The rest of my Sunday was pretty good. I drank several beers and watched movies I hadn’t seen in a long while. At night, I ordered another pizza, not caring at all about my body. I loved the taste of pizza and beer and if I had to pay with a belly in my future, I really didn’t care. No one had ever looked at me looking for a swimsuit model. Well, to be honest no one really looked at me… Well, except him. Again with him on my mind and with that stupid envelope. As I waited for the second pizza, I browsed through the local channels on the TV in order to check out the news. I stopped when I saw a familiar face: it was the guy’s cousin. And the news said he was dead. Apparently he wasn’t a singer but a filmmaker and he had died in a car crash in France.

 The news was shocking but it was even more shocking that his cousin, instead of being in France or at least mourning him, had decided to pay him a visit with a check. On the other hand, I realized I had never seen a picture by that man. And I should know, being a teacher to future filmmakers. Maybe one of my students had mentioned him once but I just couldn’t remember. I decided to look for him online. Must of it was about his tragic death, apparently a very shocking scene to witness, but I also found his filmography and had no idea what to look for. The buzzer interrupted my thoughts. Five minutes later, I had a slice of pizza on one hand and an open beer can in front of me.

 I stopped reading about the poor guy and decided to let it go for the day. Granted, it was something very strange but there was nothing I could do now. I started watching another movie when the doorman called again and told me I had some mail. I told him I would pick it up in the morning but he said something had just been delivered and that it was probably urgent, at least judging by the expression on the mail guy’s face. That was weird enough to go downstairs and grab my mail. Most of it was junk and a couple of bills but the letter that had just arrived was another unmarked envelope. I went back home and read it there. This wasn’t from the cousin but from the delivery guy.

 In the letter, he explained who he was, thinking I wouldn’t remember. He said we had been brief friends for a time when we were really young. I didn’t recall that. He also explained that the first movie that his cousin had made was base on a short story I wrote in English class. He actually copied it and made a movie version of it. He wrote that he had always felt bad for that and had begged his cousin to acknowledge that what they had done was wrong. Months before his death, he convinced him and the cousin wrote him a check to compensate. He was sorry for everything and apologized more. The check was, again, inside the envelope.

 I took him on my hands and, only doubting for a second, I tore it apart into little pieces and through it all to the garbage. I didn’t need the past to compensate for something I didn’t even recalled. I grabbed a slice of pizza and ate, a bit more angry than usual, and then my phone rang. It was him. He wanted to come up and chat. I couldn’t stop smiling and, hours later, I had to ask him to stay and never leave.